ON TARGET

3-23-19     By Dave Gunn

Handicapping the Presidential Primary Race

Out of the Gate

     The Presidential Primary race has begun. It seems to start earlier every four years, and this time is no exception. Who has the advantage out of the starting gate? What are the odds of success?

     We can immediately dispense with the Republican race. Donald Trump will easily trot to the 2020 Republican nomination. Yes, the “never Trumpers” of the Republican Party are casting about for a challenger to Trump. However, anyone who takes up their cause will likely win the votes of his family and close friends, and little else.

     The real race is on the Democrat side, where a large field is assembling. If you thought the Republicans put forth a lot of candidates in 2016, “you ain’t seen nothin’ yet.”

     According to the latest Emerson Presidential Preference Poll, Joe “gaff-a-minute” Biden and Bernie “curmudgeon” Sanders are tied for the lead with 26% each. The latest CNN poll has Biden at 26% and Sanders at 20%.

     This means that, in a party that prides itself in being racially diverse, full of opportunity for women, and youth oriented, about half of their voters favor two old, white men. It is telling that the second choice of Biden supporters is Sanders and the second choice of Sanders supporters is Biden.

     Kamala Harris is a distant third with 12%. She is still finding her way between the far left and the center of her party.

     In third place with 11% is Robert Patrick O’Rourke, the Irish descendent who tried to pass himself off as Hispanic to Texas voters by calling himself “Beto.” What is it about pasty white Democrat politicians that makes some of them want to pass as something racially they are not? Remember, Elizabeth “Pocahontas” Warren tried to pass as an American Indian until the DNA test proved that, percentage-wise, she was Indian only in her little toe-nail.

     The rest of the field is polling only in single digits, including the afore-mentioned Warren, Corey “Spartacus” Booker, Amy Klobuchar, Kristen Gillibrand, and a cast of thousands. Most of those in single digits are in the low single digits.

     Now let’s handicap the field. We’ll only rate those polling 10% or more. The rest are, at this point,” “also rans.”

     Joe Biden – 10/1. Biden has the confidence of the party establishment, but tends to fade as the race goes on. If he can run well in the summer and fall, he will improve his odds.

     Bernie Sanders – 20/1. Sanders appeals to the same loony-socialists that backed him last time. However, improving his support will be difficult, especially with the Clinton wing of the party against him. He will be around for the finish, but will place third at best.

     Kamala Harris – 5/1. She is smart, articulate, and able to adjust to meet the demands of whatever crowd she is addressing. She does best when she can give a speech and not have to answer questions.

     Robert Patrick O’Rourke – 5/1. He is an empty suit. However, so was Barak Obama. If he catches fire, he could run away with the nomination. He did raise over six-million dollars the day after he officially announced his candidacy.

     We will give a new assessment when they reach the first turn. Much could change, and someone could move up from the pack. It will be an interesting race, with some potential bumping on the inside.

[Dave Gunn is the nom de plume of Dr. David E. Gonnella, pastor of the Magnolia Springs Baptist Church in Theodore, Alabama. The opinions expressed are his own, and do not necessarily reflect those of the church or its membership.]